Guo's Starbucks Stability Hypothesis

This paper develops an original theoretical framework—Guo's Starbucks Stability Hypothesis—arguing that the density of Starbucks coffee stores in a given polity serves as an interpretable indicator of political stability. The hypothesis diverges from classical globalization theories that assume economic interdependence alone constrains conflict. Whereas the 'Golden Arches Theory' posited that states hosting McDonald's franchises would avoid war, contemporary events demonstrate that broad consumer capitalism does not automatically prevent violence. By contrast, Starbucks stores require a specific set of institutional conditions—middle class consumption, predictable regulation, infrastructure reliability and global supply chain integration. This paper synthesises insights from international political economy, urban sociology, and consumption studies to propose that Starbucks density captures micro level governance attributes neglected by macroeconomic indicators. Drawing on conflict data, urbanisation research and coffee-consumption scholarship, the paper outlines mechanisms linking Starbucks presence to stable political order. The result is a nuanced framework for analysing how everyday consumer infrastructures reflect deeper structures of stability and invites further empirical testing.